PAGCOR Chairman Flags Potential 19 Percent Drop in Philippine Gaming Revenues for 2026
Alejandro Tengco, who serves as both Chairman and CEO of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation, delivered a direct assessment of upcoming challenges facing the country's gaming sector; his remarks centered on gross gaming revenues that could slip as much as 19 percent next year, landing somewhere between Php320 billion and Php350 billion. Those figures stand in contrast to the record Php396.1 billion achieved in 2025, and Tengco attributed the expected contraction primarily to ongoing tensions in the Middle East that have begun to squeeze consumer spending patterns, especially among lower C and upper D income groups.
Context Behind the 2026 Forecast
The warning arrives in early June 2026, at a moment when operators across integrated resorts and online platforms are still processing the momentum from last year's performance; Tengco's projection incorporates data already visible in the first quarter of 2026, during which online gaming alone recorded a 22.4 percent decline compared with the same period a year earlier. Observers note that the Middle East conflict has raised living costs for many households, prompting reduced discretionary outlays on entertainment and betting activities that traditionally draw from those demographic segments.
Integrated casino floors have so far shown more resilience than digital channels, yet Tengco emphasized that sustained pressure on household budgets could spread if geopolitical conditions do not ease; the agency continues to monitor monthly collections closely, with particular attention paid to how tourism inflows might offset some of the softness in domestic participation.
Role of Tourism and External Factors
While the core outlook remains cautious, Tengco pointed to improving visitor arrivals, including a gradual rebound in travelers from China, as one variable that could moderate the projected shortfall; authorities have reported incremental gains in flight connectivity and visa processing that may translate into higher footfall at major gaming destinations later in the year. Those developments remain secondary to the broader cost pressures, however, and the agency has not revised its central range of Php320 billion to Php350 billion pending further clarity on both regional stability and tourism metrics.
Data compiled by PAGCOR shows that online platforms absorbed the earliest and sharpest impact, with many operators reporting reduced active user counts among price-sensitive segments; brick-and-mortar venues, by comparison, have benefited from a steadier stream of higher-value international guests even as local spending softened. Tengco's comments underscore that any sustained improvement in tourist volumes would need to accelerate noticeably to keep total revenues closer to the upper end of the forecasted band.
Industry Segments Most Affected
Lower C and upper D consumers represent a sizable portion of the domestic player base for both land-based and digital offerings, and their reduced participation has already contributed to the first-quarter online shortfall; the same groups tend to respond quickly to fuel, food, and utility price movements that often accompany wider geopolitical stress. Tengco indicated that PAGCOR will continue publishing quarterly updates so that licensees can adjust operational plans accordingly while the situation evolves.
Analysts following the sector have noted that the 19 percent upper-bound decline would mark the first annual contraction since the post-pandemic recovery gathered pace, although the agency stressed that the estimate incorporates a range of outcomes rather than a single fixed number. The lower end of the projection, Php320 billion, would still exceed pre-2024 totals, which suggests underlying structural demand remains intact even if near-term growth pauses.
Monitoring and Next Steps
PAGCOR has directed staff to maintain regular contact with both integrated resort operators and licensed online platforms to track real-time revenue trends and any shifts in player demographics; Tengco reiterated that the agency stands ready to refine its guidance should new information emerge on either the duration of Middle East tensions or the pace of tourism recovery. Monthly collection reports through the remainder of 2026 will serve as the primary barometer for whether the sector stays within, or moves outside, the stated range.
Conclusion
The June 2026 statement from PAGCOR's leadership supplies a clear numerical framework for what the industry may encounter over the next twelve months, grounded in observed first-quarter softness and linked explicitly to external economic pressures rather than regulatory changes. While tourism improvements offer a partial counterbalance, the central message remains that revenues are likely to settle below the 2025 peak, with the precise outcome dependent on developments beyond the Philippines' immediate control. Licensees and investors now have a defined reference point against which subsequent performance data can be measured.